CD 6 prediction
The reace in the 6th CD is a tough one to call. It does lean Republican, but that doesn't mean those folks are ready to support Michele Bachmann. Patty Wetterlings results 2 years ago tend to suggest the voters don't want her. John Binkowski is out there running hard, and if he can bring the level of support he had in Stillwater across the district he will be a contender.
Even as we close in on the final 100 days of the campaign it's still a matter of a bunch of if's that will determine the final results in the 6th. I'm confident that John Binkowski can meet his share of it's but unless things play out in the other campaigns the way I hope it might not matter.
My prediction for July Bachmann retains most Mark Kennedy voters in getting 48% of the vote. Patty Wetterling is rejected once again with 37% and John Binkowski picks up the remaining 15%.
posted by mike @ 8:31 PM
1 Comments:
Isn't this the same 6th district that Dan Becker recived 7.48% in? This is a district that trends Republican, the one hope was to bring forward a highly respected non politician in the race like Patty Wetterling. She didn't bring much to the table beyond her name. Candidates like Patty do best the first time around. The DFL had a chance to endorse a fairly competitive candidate but they decided to trot no issues Wetterling back out.
There will be conservitives who reject Bachmann. If John runs a solid campaign he can count on those votes. If John doesn't run hard, doesn't seek the voters support he would still get a fair share of them. Patty showed her true colors two years ago, and all the ducking of issues in the world this time around isn't gonna make conservitives support her. For that matter I'm not so sure Democrats who want to send someone to Washington that will be effective on all the issues that are important to the district will be supporting Patty.
Simply put Patty Wetterling is an awful candidate in the 6th district. The idea might have sounded good on first glance, and there might have been hope two years ago, but that election marked the end of her political career. She had such a huge advantage going into that race and made less then nothing out of it.
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