Happy new year!

The official unofficial start of the 2008 election cycle will be here in a few hours. This should prove to be the most interesting presidential election ever with both the Democrats and Republicans nomination completely up for grabs. Will the 2006 losses be enough for the Republicans to endorse McCain or Gulianni? Are Clinton and Obama going to last once the heat is on? And will a centrist independent be able to make any noise? Right now I feel like John Edwards will win the Democrats endorsement and should win the popular vote although I'm not yet convinced that the right states line up for a Democrat to win the electoral college unless they win the popular vote by a wide margin. As for Republicans I still have no clue what direction they will go, I still say if Pawlenty wanted to run he would have a good chance, but it doesn't seem like he wants to go down that road. I just don't see McCain getting it as hardcore Republicans won't be excited about him, and he has worn out his welcome to some extent with independent minded Republicans. Like I've said before Michael Bloomberg is the independent who not only is somewhat likely to jump in the race but would actually make an impact, so we have a decent chance of seeing a race between three New Yorkers (Clinton, Gulianni, Bloomberg).

As for Minnesota's US Senate race we will also have a decent shot of seeing two New Yorkers in Norm Coleman and Al Franken. There hasn't been much noise from any Independence, but I would expect someone with some political status would run.

And while most of the other races won't heat up until 2008 I would expect the congressional race in the 5th district to be something to watch as Keith Ellison works to establish himself. No doubt the Republicans will line someone up to run who is a little better then Alan Fine, and we may very well see some worthy DFL challenges if Ellison runs into any trouble. I would expect both Bachmann and Walz to win re-election with no great difficulty.

The political lull is slowly winding down.