Minnesota's in the Middle

All things Minnesota politics

Thursday, August 09, 2007

Presidential prediction time again

This is the fun part of the campaign when your supporting an as of yet unannounced candidate. All of the front runners are making each other look foolish while Fred Thomson and Michael Bloomberg can simply wait it out unchallenged.

Last month I predicted Thomson would be your next president and I continue to lean in that direction now considering him the heavy favorite to win the Republican nomination, You have to assume the anyone but Giuliani crowd among Republican primary voters is well above 50% so despite the fact Giuliani continues to hold onto the lead in the polls the reality is as the other candidates drop out Giuliani's support will remain flat.

If an opportunity emerges for someone other then Clinton or Obama on the Democrat side it might get interesting, but I really don't see anyone taking advantage, and while the Obama bandwagon may be strong enough to prevent rational decisions by Democrat primary voters I still see Hillary with the edge.

Michael Bloomberg continues to sit on the side lines monitoring the action, and if the above scenario plays out will almost be a sure thing to enter the race. If he does enter it will be a major signal that he sees a scenario where he wins, and while almost all candidates try to paint that picture most candidates don't spend 10's if not hundreds of millions on their campaign.

So now the question is where will Americans be in November of 08. I'm convinced they will be to the right of where they were November 06' in fact many Americans will be far to the right of their Democrat votes in 06. That would tend to mean that if Bloomberg does well it's over for the Democrats.

My prediction
Bloomberg 15%
Thomson 46%
Clinton 38%
other 1%

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