Minnesota's in the Middle

All things Minnesota politics

Sunday, September 09, 2007

September presidential prediction

It's official Fred Thomson is in, Michael Bloomberg remains out. We should know in the next few weeks if Thomson will contend or not, I think he will simply because the other options are compromises toward the middle, and unlike Democrats I don't consider Republicans cowards when it comes to nominating candidates. I think once it becomes time for Republicans to decide which direction they want to go in they kick Rudy Guliani to the curb, and pick whoever is in the lead among real Republicans, I really don't see a scenario where that ends up being anyone but Thomson.

On the Democrat side it's all Hillary. Obama has strong support, but it's still a question if his support will show up, Hillarys support is to solid to be beat.

In any event it unless Mitt Rommney or Mike Huckabee win the Republican nomination, Bill Richardson wins the Democrat nomination, or Jesse Ventura shocks everyone and runs as an independent we will for the first time in my life have a president who never served as Governor.

While I still think there's close to a 50% chance he still runs I will for the first time predict Michael Bloomberg will not enter the race. There will still be an independent candidate of some status but at this point you have to think around 2 or 3%. So basically this is a prediction of wether or not the country will be ready for a Republican again in 14 months.

Hillary Clinton 49%
Fred Thomson 48%
Other 3%

which would for the 3rd consecutive election put the winner totally in control of the electoral college.


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