June prediction time

I'll hold off until after the convention for state wide races, but I'll get the congressional predictions out of the way this week.

The 5th CD is becoming a pretty crazy race. The DFL picture is completely up in the air, and because of the dominance of the DFL in the district it can be expected that they will exhaust most of their on the primary. If they used instant run off voting I think Mike Erlandson would win, but because they don't Keith Ellison probably still has a slight advantage.

Republicans are talking a good game, although they are intentionally pretending Tammy Lee doesn't exist (note to shot in the dark Jay Pond ran last time and it didn't knock the Democrats under 60%) in an effort to make an argument of competition that will fire up their base. It is very apparent Fine's support is extremely weak within the district.

Tammy Lee looks better and better every day. She makes the most of every campaign stop with the kind of energy that you don't often see. She will be able to talk to the voters, raise money and wait out the DFL primary fight, making for a very hopeful final two months of the campaign.

And of course Jay Pond is always around to take whatever scraps he can get from the liberal side.

The brutal battle on the Democrat side along with the Republicans attack on Ellison may very well knock him down to the low 50's or worse, but it will only happen if people have an alternative they can get behind. That alternative clearly will not be Alan Fine. Ellison moves down a bit from my May prediction and everyone else benefits.

My June prediction

Keith Ellison 50%
Jay Pond 7%
Alan Fine 13%
Tammy Lee 30%