May CD 5 prediction

A lot has happened since my April Prediction. Endorsements in the DFL and GOP are now out of the way leaving us with a decent idea of where this race is headed. On the DFL side Keith Ellison defeated Mike Erlandson and the rest of the field by a pretty decent margain. On the Republican side Alan Fine was endorsed. The Independence party endorsed Tammy Lee in front of a great crowd of delegates, and the Green party endorsed Jay Pond.

Republicans are taking a nothing to lose approach on this race and attacking Ellison any way they can, while it appears they have no intrest in promoting their candidate. Meanwhile Tammy Lee's campaign is holding four big ticket fundraisers this month, and is already running a strong campaign for November. Pond will appeal to strong Green support in the district but with Ellison on the DFL side his support may be watered down a little. I'd love to say I see Ellison at 45% and that a small opening exists if the Republican and Green support was low, but at this point I can't go that far. Still Tammy Lee has emerged as the clear cut favorite to finish 2nd and the only candidate that can take advantage of a stumble by the Democrats.

My prediction for May is as follows

Keith Ellison 56%
Alan Fine 12%
Jay Pond 5%
Tammy Lee 27%