Minnesota's in the Middle

All things Minnesota politics

Saturday, April 29, 2006

April Governors Race prediction

A lot of stuff is going on that could change things as we go forward. The end result of the stadium debate and the public reaction will do something to the Governor Pawlenty's hope for reelection, but until we see that he does indeed sign a bill it's tough to gauge where that will go. Sue Jeffers has a major decision to make. If she wants to challenge for the GOP endorsement in any meaningful way she probably has to take the governor to a primary meaning one of the two would be out of the race in November with Pawlenty being the clear favorite.

Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson and Democrat Mike Hatch are pushing forward with no real news since my last prediction.

Last month I took away a little bit from Sue Jeffers because she wasn't getting her name in the paper, clearly that has changed in the last week or so. I'll have to make an adjustment there.Iit looks like the Governor is playing the stadium debate as well as he can at this point. With all that and assuming Sue Jeffers is on the ballot as a libertarian here is my April prediction.

Tim Pawlenty 42%
Mike Hatch 34%
Peter Hutchinson 18%
Sue Jeffers 6%

Note that Jeffers is pretty high now, but she will have to keep the steady flow of media up to retain and gain support.


Blogger lloydletta said...

Hutchinson's not polling that high. I hear he is polling at around 2%. That's going to make it tougher for Pawlenty to win.

Blogger mike said...

Every poll that I'm aware of has him above 6%, I'd love to see him polling at 18% today, but independent voters don't jump on board overnight.

I'm a little concerned the momentum hasn't started to build but we're still 2 months from the convention and 4 months from the state fair.

Who knows if Minnesotans have given up on there fight against stadiums maybe they have given up there independent streak all together, but I don't believe that.


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