Minnesota's in the Middle

All things Minnesota politics

Thursday, May 25, 2006

May US Senate prediction

I'm still waiting for something to happen in this race. Right now all the action is going on behind the scenes, at this point it's all fundraising and speeches to party loyalists, with nothing of significance beyond that. If I ignore polls I can just reproduce my April prediction which had Mark Kennedy with a 5 point lead. At this point I see no reason to move from 7% on Robert Fitzgerald, I'll be better able to gauge him out of the Independence Party convention June 24th at Midway stadium.

Although I'm making a prediction for November 7th and really don't think a lead in polls right now mean to much this early I will move 1% in favor of Klobuchar.

That makes my not so fascinating May prediction as follows

Amy Klobuchar 45%
Robert Fitzgerald 7%*
Mark Kennedy 48%


*Note that come November the closeness of the race could greatly effect Fitzgerald 's final #'s. Until we get closer I will predict his #'s as if Kennedy and Klobuchar are not within the margin of error.

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