The media, elections, and polls

The recent headlines regarding the poll on what effect the Twins stadium bill will have on voters decisions this fall was a little odd. KSTP's headline claims voters are not upset about the stadium bill yet 2 out of 5 Minnesotan's replied saying it will sway their vote with 36% saying they will be more likely to vote against there representative because of it versus 23% who would be likely to vote for them, that’s a pretty significant percentage. The headlines however would tell you because it's not over 50% or extreamly one sided the voters will be giving those voting for a stadium this fall a pass.

If you look at the raw numbers it would indicate about a 5% swing against anyone who voted in favor of the Twins stadium, that would swing a significant # of races, and would result in the Vikings not having the votes the next 4 years. Beyond that it would seem the passion lies against the stadium, the passion is a little watered down at this point, but it has never taken great passion to find a reason to vote against someone.

In 2004 the Democrats took 13 seats for no clear reason, now we have over 100 bipartisan legislators and a governor putting themselves on the line for something the majority of the public is very much against. This is going to play out over the next 5 months, for KSTP and others to write it off as a non factor is laughable. We may have let a few pro stadium folks slip past us in the last couple years, and were mislead by governor Pawlenty on his stance, but make no mistake public opinion on this issue has not changed over the last 10 years.