Minnesota's in the Middle

All things Minnesota politics

Saturday, July 22, 2006

July predictions

We now have a few polls out showing Peter Hutchinson and Robert Fitzgerald are in the single digest. That of course doesn't change the fact that 100 days is a long time in the average voters mind. My predictions this month will not be greatly effected by those polls.

That being said I'll start out away from the polls with the race in CD 5. The Keith Ellison news only intensified this month, but it doesn't change the fact that there are to many mediocre opponents for the endorsed candidate to lose in the primary.

No surprises in filling guarantee Jay Pond, Tammy Lee, and Alan Fine move on to the November ballot. This race is all about the #'s of Jay Pond and Alan Fine as there will only be so much anti Democrat vote to go around, and neither is capable of gaining upwards of 35% of the vote which would be the absolute minimum to win the race. I don't see much from Fine although as a Republican he has 10-12% coming his way as long he doesn't do anything stupid. Pond is the more difficult candidate to gauge. This of course is a district that leans left and thus a Green can do very well, however it's easier to vote for a Green when the Democrat is going to get 65% of the vote anyways. I haven't heard any good things about Pond so it would stand to reason he would do worse then he did in 2004 when he received 5.74% of the vote.

Last month I had Ellison at an unbeatable 50%, but it looks like he has fallen farther. How far he will go who knows, but my June prediction

Jay Pond 4%
Alan Fine 14%
Keith Ellison 47%
Tammy Lee 35%

While it's a long shot if the #'s tighten up like that the Republicans might want to see a Democrat knocked off bad enough that Alan Fine drops out of the race, but with the other state wide races they probably won't want to give anyone extra incentive to stay home, or do anything to drive up turnout from the 5th district

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