Minnesota's in the Middle

All things Minnesota politics

Sunday, November 05, 2006

5th CD poll

The #'s Keith Ellison 49 Alan Fine 24 Tammy Lee 22 Jay Pond 2

The bad news, people who actually believe in Alan Fine's liberal agenda will be tempted to stick with him, the good news Keith Ellison is under 50% and dropping. Tammy Lee continues to run the strongest campaign of the three, and is continuing to climb in the final days. The question is will this motivate Republicans to continue to support the liberal Fine, or will they see the glimmer of hope as Tammy Lee continues to climb and Ellison continues to drop while the Liberal Fine is simply a name next to an R. I still hold to my claim that if Ellison drops below 42% Tammy Lee wins, and now with this poll not really lighting any huge spark in any direction, it's abount doing the things that we've been doing all along.

One note while I think Survey USA is among the better pollsters they do limit undecided as much as possible so it's tough to say where the least certain votes are. Democrats, who see a 25-point lead over Fine with Tammy likely to surpass him, might now find it safe to vote for Lee, and the desire of Republicans to support the liberal Alan Fine has never been strong. It will be tough, but there is no doubt in my mind Tammy Lee will make a major stride toward Keith Ellison in the closing days of this race, and if the voters of the 5th district vote with courage she will win.

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