July 2007 presidential prediction

A few things have changed since my last prediction. While neither have announced Michael Bloomberg and Fred Thomson now appear to be in the race and the media and pollsters are seeing the effects. Last month I had Mitt Romney winning for the Republicans and becoming our next president, and while he still has a shot he has done nothing to help his cause in the last month, and given he still has to pass a handful of candidates it is doubtful at this point that he can build the momentum. Hillary Clinton and Obama now seem so far seperated from the rest of the Democratic pack that there is no longer a need to mention any other names. Bloomberg meanwhile has drawn a lot of attention and is simply waiting things out before he jumps into the race full force.

Bloomberg's emergence makes it a little easier for Republicans to consider their entire field which should help Thomson. While Guliani still clearly has the lead and John McCain is not out of things, neither of those will excite Republicans given the option of Fred Thomson. This would create the ideal senerio for Bloomberg and would insure his entrance into the race.

While I still think he will meet or exceed the success of Ross Perot in 92 I will not go overboard with my prediction until I see some poll #'s, but for now I will predict.

Hillary Clinton 42%
Michael Bloomberg 13%
Fred Thomson 44%
other 1%