Minnesota's in the Middle

All things Minnesota politics

Saturday, June 21, 2008

The dynamics of the ballot

The US Senate race will not be decided by those motivated to vote for Senate, the presidential race in Minnesota will not be decided by those motivated to vote for president. With rare exception those who wouldn't otherwise show up if it wasn't for one race or one candidate will cast a ballot in both races.

In 1998 Jesse Ventura brought out the unexpected voter, while all presidential races bring out the infrequent voter, if Ventura drives that same kind of turnout, and the crossover between unlikely and infrequent voter is not huge we might see an unimaginable voter turnout come November.

Things get even more interesting if John McCain chooses Tim Pawlenty as his running mate. In a large sense Ventura's success will be based on his ability to expose the tactics of Pawlenty and to a lesser extent Roger Moe towards the end of his term. Because of Ventura Pawlenty will have to run on both his record as a legislator and a Governor, and that's will not turn out well for him, as there are very clear inconsistencies that suggest he has no principal.

It's fair to assume Franken will win those that turn out exclusively for Obama, but Ventura should do well among that group, gaining considerable ground on Senator Coleman. I also think Ventura's support crosses over well to Obama, without question should Pawlenty be on the ticket. Stand alone I think Obama wins fairly close, Ventura runs competitive with a chance of Victory, but the combination could mean a solid Obama victory as well as a Ventura wins without to late of a night before the call.

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