Minnesota's in the Middle

All things Minnesota politics

Monday, June 16, 2008

What he poll #'s mean

A second three way poll confirms the first putting Ventura within striking distance of Franken, but also showing Coleman will have to be knocked down for the race to become winnable.

One things for certain the anti Ventura spin machine is prepared for his entrance even if they still mockingly suggest he is afraid to enter for fear of losing. Every indication suggest Ventura has committed himself to this race, from his willingness to open up with the Twin Cities media to Dean Barkley's acceptance of a CEO position. As a man of principal though he will not and should not actively campaign until he is officially running come mid July.

Most polls remain stale without a dramatic event, in this race the dramatic event will be Ventura's portion. It is reasonable to assume upon filing his poll #'s will increase into the upper 20's putting him in a dead heat with Franken and 10-12 points behind Coleman, 28-30-39 sounds about right. The can win factor then comes into play and all he has to do is prove he is a change from Coleman and Franken as he did in 98.

A month ago I would have told you he could poll in the high teens, but mid 20's puts him in great position, and the spin machine against him will not back down. he will enter this race and he will finish ahead of Franken, it's just a matter of getting out the vote to defeat Senator Coleman.

1 Comments:

Blogger Caitlin said...

Mike,
Thanks for your comment about Ventura! I think you make a very good point - context is very important when we think back to the gubernatorial race. What did you think of Ventura as a governor?

09:20  

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