Something unexplainable is going on
If national polls were showing Amy Klobuchar at 56%, 57% and 54%, and then the Star Tribune came out with a poll showing her at 25% followed up with a Pioneer Press poll showing her at 9% we would be having a criminal investigation, as it would be apparent some sort of fraud was going on. While the %'s are a little different the exact same thing is happing to Robert Fitzgerald the 3 most recent polls that didn't hit the front page of the Star Tribune or Pioneer press show him at 8% (Survey USA), 8% (Rasmussen), 7% Humphrey (institute). At the exact same time as that Humphrey institute poll a Pioneer Press poll was conducted showing him at 1% and a week prior the Star Tribune poll showed him at 3%. Sampling error does not begin to explain this kind of pattern, unintentional human error might, but if it does then a couple pollsters need to start explaining.
One things for certain when one poll shows one candidate at 7% and at the same time another shows that same candidate at 1% and the article in the pioneer press does not make mention of the other result, and the newspaper includes info on Klobuchar and Kennedy , but not Fitzgerald they end up effecting our democracy in ways they claim they are not willing to touch. The Jesse Ventura story sold many many newspapers, and yet for whatever reason these newspapers are unwilling to report the whole story, in fear that another third party candidate might be successful.
Now why on earth would a thing like this be going on? Thats a direct question, I know who reads this blog, I expect answers.
posted by mike @ 9:43 AM
3 Comments:
Good question.
It might be affected by what questions are asked in the lead-up to "if the election were held today, who would you vote for?"
If people are spending a few minutes answering questions about Bush, Democrats and Republicans, they're probably more likely to answer Amy K. or Mark K.
Whereas if it's only: "Who are you voting for? DFL Candidate... Republican... Independence Party..." They may be more likely to say "Well I'm pretty independent, so I pick Robert..."
Your thoughts, Mike?
I know the Star Tribune poll asked several tripartisan questions, I could see the Pioneer Press poll being more of a two party poll. The other factor is they asked about the Green candidate, which I think makes the Independence Party look less like a major party and more like a third party. The real key seems to be the level of undecideds, because really the totals of Klobuchar and Kennedy are the same across the board, and it's just a matter of what the pollsters determine those not supporting either are thinking.
Post a Comment
<< Home