Minnesota's in the Middle

All things Minnesota politics

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Michael Bloomberg visit

New York Independence Party mayor Michael Bloomberg is coming to Minnesota July 25th to hold three political fundraisers for the Independence Party. Although it seems this is being arranged by people in higher places then current IP leadership.

Saturday, June 21, 2008

The dynamics of the ballot

The US Senate race will not be decided by those motivated to vote for Senate, the presidential race in Minnesota will not be decided by those motivated to vote for president. With rare exception those who wouldn't otherwise show up if it wasn't for one race or one candidate will cast a ballot in both races.

In 1998 Jesse Ventura brought out the unexpected voter, while all presidential races bring out the infrequent voter, if Ventura drives that same kind of turnout, and the crossover between unlikely and infrequent voter is not huge we might see an unimaginable voter turnout come November.

Things get even more interesting if John McCain chooses Tim Pawlenty as his running mate. In a large sense Ventura's success will be based on his ability to expose the tactics of Pawlenty and to a lesser extent Roger Moe towards the end of his term. Because of Ventura Pawlenty will have to run on both his record as a legislator and a Governor, and that's will not turn out well for him, as there are very clear inconsistencies that suggest he has no principal.

It's fair to assume Franken will win those that turn out exclusively for Obama, but Ventura should do well among that group, gaining considerable ground on Senator Coleman. I also think Ventura's support crosses over well to Obama, without question should Pawlenty be on the ticket. Stand alone I think Obama wins fairly close, Ventura runs competitive with a chance of Victory, but the combination could mean a solid Obama victory as well as a Ventura wins without to late of a night before the call.

Monday, June 16, 2008

What he poll #'s mean

A second three way poll confirms the first putting Ventura within striking distance of Franken, but also showing Coleman will have to be knocked down for the race to become winnable.

One things for certain the anti Ventura spin machine is prepared for his entrance even if they still mockingly suggest he is afraid to enter for fear of losing. Every indication suggest Ventura has committed himself to this race, from his willingness to open up with the Twin Cities media to Dean Barkley's acceptance of a CEO position. As a man of principal though he will not and should not actively campaign until he is officially running come mid July.

Most polls remain stale without a dramatic event, in this race the dramatic event will be Ventura's portion. It is reasonable to assume upon filing his poll #'s will increase into the upper 20's putting him in a dead heat with Franken and 10-12 points behind Coleman, 28-30-39 sounds about right. The can win factor then comes into play and all he has to do is prove he is a change from Coleman and Franken as he did in 98.

A month ago I would have told you he could poll in the high teens, but mid 20's puts him in great position, and the spin machine against him will not back down. he will enter this race and he will finish ahead of Franken, it's just a matter of getting out the vote to defeat Senator Coleman.

Friday, June 13, 2008

Ventura polls at 24%

First three way poll shows Jesse Ventura is right in the middle of things should he enter the US Senate race. This time the stale anti Ventura talking points will be part of the race, but I really think that pleays in Ventura's favor.

A heck of a lot of people who right now couldn't imagine voting Ventura will again, he just has a way of making things to simple to disagree. If he takes 5% from Coleman 2.5% from Franken and half the undecideds he wins.