Minnesota's in the Middle

All things Minnesota politics

Friday, October 24, 2008

You know it's bad...

When I'm endorsing Michele Bachmann, but in light of Barack Obama (who the media has not been willing to investigate) set to become the most fiscally liberal president of my lifetime, we have to be willing to set asside major objectives such as leagalizing gay marraige to keep the true fiscal conservitives we have.

While many will talk about compramise I look for a firmly planted principal. Michele Bachmann is the most principaled member of congress Minnesota has, even if she is as wrong as you can get in regard on gay marraige, at least she's honest about it unlike the Democrats who all claim to be "friends of the gay community" but take no meaningful action.

There are 11 days left of the country I know and love, and all be damned if we get rid of one more fiscal conservitive simply because she was being honest about what Barack Obama represents.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

3rd district debate Friday

This is your last chance to watch George Bush loving immature shmuck Ashwin Madia prove that there are only two accaptable outcomes in the 3rd CD. David Dillon and Erick Paulson. Decide for yourself Friday night on KSTP.

Independence Party presidential endorsement

Next weekend the Independence Party will hold a convention to endorse a candidate for President among all candidates. Media articles focus in on Obama and McCain, but the reality is neither of those candidates are eligible based on platform rules, so basically it will come down to Ralf Nader, Chuck Baldwin, or Bob Barr. If the party is moving in the direction it needs to a Bob Barr endorsement will occur, if Tim Penny, Peter Hutchinson and there supporters are allowed to continue to strangle the party they will say platform me damned and endorse Obama effectively ending Dean Barkley's hope's to defeat Norm Coleman and Al Franken.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Bob Barr

A poll about a month back reported Dean Barkley at 3%, but reading the details of that poll 3% of respondents answered the question who are you voting Norm Coleman or Al Franken with Dean Barkley. A poll that actually would have named Barkley would show his support in the mid teens.

Here and there you will see a poll reporting results for Bob Barr around 2 or 3%, but the reality is nobody is willing to acknowledge that Bob Barr is a candidate for President of the United States.

With both McCain and Obama both voting in favor of the bailout millions of Americans want something better to support.

The polls are going to be off this year with the three way senate race, the crazy assumption that young people will vote in record #'s, and the sad reality that racism still exists. Bob Barr will likely crack 10% in a few states despite the fact nobody in the media would dare predict it. With Dean Barkley's strong support leading the way Minnesota very well may be one of those states.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Debate time Saturday night

While I have decided the Wild season opener is more important then my personal attendance this should be the most watched debate of the campaign. The first 15 minutes are critical as it's Saturday night, and we either are about to turn on the Wild, or head out of the house.

Alright it's Wild pregame time. I may be able to give a report on how the debate plays after a few beers, although I don't know how many people will be tuning into the debate from that perspective.

This very well may be the last post of the night that is spell checked, hey it's Saturday and the Labbot's are cold. Lets go Wild!!!

Norm Coleman negitive ad watch

I'll start this and you can add in the comments section.

6:18 PM Kare 11 Twin Cities, Norm Coleman approved a message that directly attacked his opponent.

I personally don't mind negitive ads, but liars suck. What was bailout Normie's press confrence yesterday really about?

Friday, October 10, 2008

Norm Coleman suspends campaign

Well it would appear that way anyways as he has pledged against negitive ads the rest of the way. The best news out of that as it would suggest he will not go negitive on Barkley, and it puts Al Franken in an odd position if he were to need to go negitive on Barkley.

I'd go on for a couple paragraphs here about what this means, but lets get real, Senator Coleman will be airing negitive ads by this time next week, unless he shoots up 10 points in the polls overnight. And really when Al Franken is incapable of paying his taxes doesn't Norm Coleman, Dean Barkley and most importantly the media owe it to the voters to point that out?

Thursday, October 09, 2008

David Dillon polls at 8%

It's kind of unfortanate when the rational for a lot of Dean Barkley voters is the negitive ads that the same doesn't hold true in the third where the ads are much more negitive, but currently David Dillon despite running a financially solid campaign is sitting 10-12% below Dean Barkley.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

What the Barkley campaign is doing wrong

I strongly support Dean Barkley for US Senate, he is far and away the best candidate on the ballot. I am however not connected to the campaign and am not completly sure he is doing everything he can to put himself in position to win.

First the positive he is fundraising, fundraising, fundraising. He is taking the debates as seriusly as possible and knows what it takes to score points.

Heres the problem, although honesty counts, Unless your 110% honest 120% of the time, the bailout is not the issue you go against the masses on. Dean's rational and anger on the bailout is solid, but he is absulutly losing votes by saying he would have voted for it. I personally am tempted not to publish that last sentance as it might cost him one or two more votes.

The second area where Dean Barkley is falling short is his incestence to comment on all poll results including the one that came out today. A few weeks ago a poll came out showing Dean at 3%, it was flawed, we all knew it was flawed, and we all knew why it was flawed. Survey USA and the Star Tribune poll have proven track records of giving a good indication of where we are at, and what direction we are moving. If some other poll showed Barkley at 26% that would be worth having fun with, but outside of the poll on election day it is pointless to focus on the polls that only come out once or twice when other polls come out with new results every few weeks.

Today in the Star Tribune

An article was published on an issue tht only included the views of Norm Coleman and Al Franken. No mention was made of an attempt to get Barkley's view, nor was a closing sentance included stating Dean Barkley is also in the race as a recent article on the third CD race did with David Dillon.

What can be said? It isn't fair that's for sure, but you can't leagally require they do what we want, afterall there are more candidates then just Franken Coleman and Barkley. What we can do is relize Barkley is running strong, he has shined in his first debate, more yard signs are popping up each day. He will raise money, he will run ads, the voters will know he is running and running strong. The major polls in this state all say the same thing. He is gaining support and is above the Jesse Ventura level. Everywhere you turn you find another unexpected supporter. At least one Republican endorsed candidate will be voting Dean Barkley for US Senate.

If the Star Tribune doesn't care thats fine, they are not the player they were just 10 years ago, but we are.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Pat Kessler declares Barkley debate winner

WCCO TV's Pat Kessler has declared Dean Barkley the winner of Sunday nights debate.

Monday, October 06, 2008

Who won the first debate?

All three campaigns claim to have one the debate, only one posted the debate on their website. Dean Barkley and his staffers are proud of his performance. It appears the same can't be said for Norm Coleman or Al Franken.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

Way to go Dean!!!

Norm Coleman was only prepared to debate Al Franken tonight, and is acting like a five year old with almost every other response. Franken is giving the typical liberal responses, and outside of appearing inexperianced in the setting is holding his own. Dean Barkley on the other hand understands his opponents, understands the format, understands the public, and even understands the specific rule details of this paticular debate. He's put that all together and is running circles around his opponents.

If your going to show up a debate, you might as well bring everything you've got. Dean did that tonight and will again four more times. If his opponents step it up in the final four debates the best they can hope for is to be on equal footing of Dean Barkley.

Debate time

Oh what excitement, a radio only debate tonight on WCCO Radio among other stations. It would actually be best for Dean Barkley not to show his complete hand until he gets on TV. Tonight is a chance to introduce himself to those that don't know his politics (latest polls show a third of respondents have not heard of him yet). In any event people will watch his performance and evaluate him tonight. And hey his opponents haven't learned anything yet about how to deal with him so maybe they won't tonight.

Who does Dean Barkley help?

We all know Dean Barkley will help Independence Party candidates like David Dillon up and down the ballot, and third party candidates in general, but a critical question should be asked. In the race for president does Dean Barkleys likely strong showing help either Barack Obama or John McCain at a meaningful level?

At this point it's tough to say, both have strong independent qualities, and strong partisan records. I think Barkley's strongest driving point among those that aren't simply using him as a protest vote, is fiscal conservatism, and clearly McCain is closer to that position then Obama.

The latest poll shows Obama up 18%, but if the gap closes Barkley's voters could sway Minnesota, and this year Minnesota could decide a close election.

Saturday, October 04, 2008

How this helps across the board

I spent last evening campaigning with Northeast Minneapolis State House candidate David DeGrio, 3rd running a financially strong campaign, and even candidates of other parties like Libertarian Bob Barr will benefit hugely by Dean Barkleys strong support. In 1998 there really were not any strong candidates for Jesse Ventura to take along for the ride, still 3rd party support was up tremendously that year.

Some polls showed David Dillon in double digits prior to Barkley's emergence. While a lot of there support was bound to come from the same people Barkley will bring new people toward Dillon. If in a the average year the typical moderately active IP candidate finishes between 5-10% we can look at 8-15% this year. The better candidates like Dillon and DeGrio can compete.

Give them a benifit of the doubt

Lets look at the worst case senerio based on the last 2 polls for all 3 candidates.

Coleman 34 (the same 34% that the Democrats so despratly reported their internals showed)

Franken 33
Barkley 18

Pretty picture ain't it?

Heck toss those two a 3 percent margain of error cusion (remember margain of error is just as likely to go the other way).

Coleman 37
Franken 36 (the same 36% that the Democrats so despratly reported their internals showed)
Barkley 18

Franken flips past Coleman

In what is otherwise a virtually identical result to that of Survey USA Al Franken and Norm Colemans results have flipped. While a 20% swing in a matter of two or three days seems impossible the bailout vote is a huge deal. This would actually be a better result for Dean Barkley as it is much easier to tear away from the guy that doesn't know how to pay taxes.

This confirms the steady rise Dean Barkley is seeing, but does not give him further momentum as the results of survey USA were not available at the time of polling.

Friday, October 03, 2008

Star Tribune poll

A new Star Tribune poll will be released in the morning. Polling took place mostly after Norm Colemans pro bailout vote which should be good news for Dean Barkley but also should tighten the margain between Coleman and Al Franken. The poll took place prior or mostly prior to the release of survey USA so much more then 21% would be suprising, I'm gonna hege my bets and say Dean will come in at 18% with Coleman leading Franken by 3-5 percent.

Polling 101

A little on the dynamic of polls as they effect a third party candidate gaining support, and how polls can manipulate the decision making process.

First off if you comb the blogs you will see several references to the 3% result Rasmussen showed Barkley at a few weeks ago. While that result is completely valid within the context of that polls methodology it should not be considered even an outlier. They went with the idea that third party candidates generally don't do well and most voters will select one of the two establishment candidates. That potentially can happen but polls are supposed to be a snapshot in time and Dean is very clearly somewhere above 13% and presumably still rising beyond the latest 19% figure.

3rd party candidates are not considered by 90% of the population when polling at under 1% (case in point Bob Barr or Ralf Nader) as they start to register they become open for consideration by more and more of the population. Of course being considered only puts them on equal footing of the other considered candidates. In Barkley's case it is reasonable to believe that if it came down to it more then a third of voters would put him in the US Senate over his rivals, meaning with 100% consideration he will likely win. The poll #'s reported are the biggest factor in this. Of course the presence of lawn signs and activist are also used by many to gauge viability.

The goal of the Barkley campaign at this point should be to win the battle of ideas, as at this point the battle for consideration will take care of itself. we're currently looking at 40-55% consideration if that moves to over 70% and he doesn't lose a considerable # of supporters he wins or at least has a late night November 2nd.

Luckily the Democrats and Republicans think more along the lines of the people at Rasmussen and will do little to knock him down until it's to late. The Democrats and Republicans will continue to use there most favorable internals but the real story comes unfiltered.

Tasty Tasty Rum

Thanks Congress, you sure do hate the American people. McCain Obama Coleman Ellison Ramstad Kline Oberstar McCulum, Your job is on the line.

Dow was at 10728 upon passage, it is now down.

Update 3:02 PM dow is down to 10325 over 400 points lost in 3 hours. Not only did the bailout not work it actually hurt the market. The market thrives off the free market and this bill works to shut the free market down.

Thursday, October 02, 2008


Latest Survey USA poll puts Dean Barkley within 24% of leader Norm Coleman prior to the first debate. More importantly the separation between Coleman and Franken is huge especially in a three way race at 10%.

It's now safe to leave Coleman and meaningless to stay with Franken meaning Barkley probably just gained 4-8% upon the release of this poll. Al Franken will bring debate viewership up and Dean just has to do what he's supposed to do. Coleman still has to be the favorite, but Dean Barkley just went from a long shot to a fair bet.

This election comes down to the debates now. This is fun!!!

What Norm Coleman voted for


Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Norm Coleman...

Your fired.

The stock market will be lower on election day then it is today. This legislation is loaded with pork. While the media can continue to ignore the alternitives to McCain and Obama, a vote against Coleman does not require voting for a bailout loving Democrat like Al Franken.